Dollar Surges but Tuesday could be Ugly for US Stocks
On Friday, we argued that the dollar may rally this week as traders reflect on whether it is realistic to expect the Federal Reserve to deliver an intermeeting rate cut or 75bp easing at the end of the month. As we predicted, the dollar has started off the week strongly, but for reasons other than the ones that we have proposed. Stock markets around the world have plunged. In fact, that's an understatement because the one day slides in many of the indexes are the worst since 9/11 of 2001. The UK's FTSE index is down over 5 percent, the German DAX is down over 7 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell more than 5 percent. Even though the US stock markets were closed for Martin Luther King's day,
Dow futures fell 546 points or 4.5 percent. If the futures do not retrace materially before the market's open on Tuesday and the Dow closes the day down by the amount that the futures suggest, the index would see its fourth largest point loss ever. Such big moves in the equity markets certainly make an intermeeting rate cut by the Federal Reserve more likely. If stocks do not begin to recover anytime soon, the Fed will be forced to take measures to restore confidence in the US financial markets.
Although part of today's volatility could be attributed to the fear of a US recession and the lack of liquidity, the move began in Asia and was sparked by speculation that the Bank of China could be forced to write-off a fourth of its $8 billion subprime exposure. The announcement by the Chinese Bank would indicate that the mortgage mess has spread from the US to Europe and now into Asia. The world may be able to deal with a slowdown in the US economy, but the combination of a material slowdown in both US and China would be too much for everyone to handle.
The lack of economic data on the US calendar this week will allow the equity markets to drive currency movements. Should Tuesday come anywhere close to being a record breaking day in US stocks, we expect to see the biggest drawdown in carry trades since the inception of the Euro. This will in turn lead to more dollar strength against everything except for the Japanese Yen which will decouple from the rest of the dollar pairs due to its carry trade status.
Very Simple Very Good ;-)
Forex is all about making pips and converting them into Dollars ;-) isent it? yeah it is ... well the more you know the more you get confused... isent it? I DISAGREE :-) Know more but implement only Few .... so when you use simple strategies you wont get confused atleast you wont be thinking about to trust your Moving averages or to trust your MACD or RSI ... apart from all of this ... I designed and implemented very simple strategy and to expose it to all you people mostly my Marketiva Friends and Students !!!
Why you trade 10 or 20 trades a day? to risk more? A survey reports said that " Out of 10 people only 2 people are successful in trading" why dont you be the one in those 2 TRADERS?
So if you want to be in those 2 Traders "TRADE LESS" and enter only when trend is set.... your 2 or maximum of 3 trades can make you earn a SINGLE position but your 10 trades can make you pay 8 trades in losses according to that Survey :-)
Best Regards,
Pip-Machine.
Pivot Points Table:
Elliot Wave Theory::
Elliot Wave Theory::
Back in the old school days during the 1920-30s, there was this mad genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott. Elliott discovered that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, actually, did not.
They traded in repetitive cycles, which he pointed out were the emotions of investors and traders caused by outside influences (ahem, CNBC) or the predominant psychology of the masses at the time.
Elliott explained that the upward and downward swings of the mass psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns, which were then divided into patterns he called "waves". He needed to claim this observation and so he came up with a super original name: The Elliott Wave Theory.
The 5 – 3 Wave Patterns
Mr. Elliott showed that a trending market moves in what he calls a 5-3 wave pattern. The first 5-wave pattern is called impulse waves and the last 3-wave pattern is called corrective waves.
Let’s first take a look at the 5-wave impulse pattern. It’s easier if you see it as a picture:
Yes! Thats more like it, Colors always sounds good to eyes instead of black and white Images.
Here is a short description of what happens during each wave. I am going to use stocks for my example since stocks is what Mr. Elliott used but it really doesn’t matter what it is. It can easily be currencies, bonds, gold, oil, or Tickle Me Elmo dolls. The important thing is the Elliott Wave Theory can also be applied to the foreign exchange market.
Wave 1 The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.
Wave 2 At this point enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.
Wave 3 This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 People take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips”.
Wave 5 This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. People start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.
The ABC Correction
The 5-wave trends are then corrected and reversed by 3-wave countertrends. Letters are used instead of numbers to track the correction. Check out this example of smokin’ hot 3-wave corrective wave pattern!
Just because I’ve been using a bull market as my primary example doesn’t mean the Elliott Wave theory doesn’t work on bear markets. The same 5 – 3 wave pattern can look like this:
Waves within a Wave
The other important thing you have to know about the Elliot Wave Theory is that a wave is made of sub-waves? Huh? Let me show you another picture. Pictures are great aren't they? Yee-haw!
Do you see how Wave 1 is made up of a smaller 5-wave impulse pattern and Wave 2 is made up of smaller 3-wave corrective pattern? Each wave is always comprised of smaller wave patterns.
As you can see, waves aren’t shaped perfectly in real life. You’ll also learn its sometimes difficult to label waves. But the more you stare at charts the better you’ll get.
Okay, that’s all you need to know about the Elliott Wave Theory. Remember the market moves in waves. Now when you hear somebody say “Wave 2 is complete.” You’ll know what the heck he is talking about.
If you wish to become an Elliott Wave Theory guru, you can learn more about it at
www.elliottwave.com.
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