Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.54; (P) 212.71; (R1) 213.51; More
GBP/JPY's rise from 205.86 was limited at 213.85, slightly below inner falling channel resistance (now at 213.91). Subsequent retreat dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, with GBP/JPY touched 211.88 support, indicating that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 209.28 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has completed and suggest that consolidation from 204.49 has finished too. In such case, deeper fall should be see to retest 204.49 low. Meanwhile, on the upside, above 213.85 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has resumed for 100% projection of 204.49 to 214.00 from 205.86 at 215.37.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 after completion of a medium term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), with the medium term trend line support taken out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. However, subsequent fall from there was contained at 204.49, after being supported by double channel support and formed a short term bottom. Nevertheless, as long as the current rebound is limited below 221.25 support turned resistance, the fall from 241.35 should still be in force and deeper decline is expected to psychological support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50% retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 high) at 199.64.
However, sustained break of the mentioned inner channel resistance (now at 214.91) and 100% projection level at 215.37 will firstly indicate that fall from 241.35 has completed. Secondly, it will alert that whole decline from 251.09 has possibly completed with three waves down to 204.49 too. Further break of 221.25 support turned resistance will have medium term outlook will turn neutral first in such case and focus will be back on outer channel resistance (now at 231.47).
GBP/JPY's rise from 205.86 was limited at 213.85, slightly below inner falling channel resistance (now at 213.91). Subsequent retreat dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, with GBP/JPY touched 211.88 support, indicating that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 209.28 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has completed and suggest that consolidation from 204.49 has finished too. In such case, deeper fall should be see to retest 204.49 low. Meanwhile, on the upside, above 213.85 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has resumed for 100% projection of 204.49 to 214.00 from 205.86 at 215.37.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 after completion of a medium term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), with the medium term trend line support taken out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. However, subsequent fall from there was contained at 204.49, after being supported by double channel support and formed a short term bottom. Nevertheless, as long as the current rebound is limited below 221.25 support turned resistance, the fall from 241.35 should still be in force and deeper decline is expected to psychological support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50% retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 high) at 199.64.
However, sustained break of the mentioned inner channel resistance (now at 214.91) and 100% projection level at 215.37 will firstly indicate that fall from 241.35 has completed. Secondly, it will alert that whole decline from 251.09 has possibly completed with three waves down to 204.49 too. Further break of 221.25 support turned resistance will have medium term outlook will turn neutral first in such case and focus will be back on outer channel resistance (now at 231.47).
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