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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Technical Analysis EUR/USD

EURUSD
Reviewing what we already know; there are 5 waves down from 1.6018 which confirm that an important top is in place. The rally from 1.5554 is in 3 waves which is corrective and additional evidence that the larger trend is now down. The EURUSD has dropped below 1.5554, therefore wave 3 (or c) within the 5 (or 3) wave bear cycle from 1.6018 is probably underway. For wave 2 to end above 1.5694, the pair would have to trace out an expanded flat, which is more common in 4th waves and the internal structure of the decline from 1.5694 is impulsive. Ideally, price remains below 1.5610 but risk can be moved to 1.5694.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5694, target below 1.5342

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As you can see in Figure 1, support is the price level through which a stock or market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by the red arrows).

Why Does it Happen?
These support and resistance levels are seen as important in terms of market psychology and supply and demand. Support and resistance levels are the levels at which a lot of traders are willing to buy the stock (in the case of a support) or sell it (in the case of resistance). When these trendlines are broken, the supply and demand and the psychology behind the stock's movements is thought to have shifted, in which case new levels of support and resistance will likely be established.

Round Numbers and Support and Resistance
One type of universal support and resistance that tends to be seen across a large number of securities is round numbers. Round numbers like 10, 20, 35, 50, 100 and 1,000 tend be important in support and resistance levels because they often represent the major psychological turning points at which many traders will make buy or sell decisions.

Buyers will often purchase large amounts of stock once the price starts to fall toward a major round number such as $50, which makes it more difficult for shares to fall below the level. On the other hand, sellers start to sell off a stock as it moves toward a round number peak, making it difficult to move past this upper level as well. It is the increased buying and selling pressure at these levels that makes them important points of support and resistance and, in many cases, major psychological points as well.

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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Technical Analysis EUR/USD

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