GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.9615; (P) 1.9661; (R1) 1.9713; MoreCable continues to consolidate below 1.9707 and outlook remains unchanged so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.9608 minor support holds. As discussed before, fall from 1.9957 should have completed with three waves down to 1.9360 and such corrective nature suggests that consolidation that started at 1.9337 is still in progress. In other words, further rally is expected to retest 1.9957 before completing the consolidation from 1.9337. Below 1.9608 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But further rise is still in favor as long as pull back is contained by 1.9527 support.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, prior break of medium term rising channel and 2.0 psychological level at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161. With 55 weeks EMA taken out too, it's likely that the medium term up trend from 1.7047 has also completed. Deeper medium term decline is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.1161 at 1.8619. The above view remains valid as long as upside of the consolidation from 1.9337 is limited by 2.0099 resistance. However, with a short term low in place at 1.9337, further consolidation could still be seen and break of 1.9337 is needed to confirm whole down trend from 2.1161 has resumed.
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 158.26; (P) 158.76; (R1) 159.37; More.EUR/JPY's rise from 154.05 resumes today and surges to as high as 160.26 so far. Break of 159.46 resistance confirms that rebound from 152.11 is still in progress. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 158.88 minor support holds. Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 152.11 to 159.46 from 154.05 at 161.40 first. On the downside,below 158.88 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But as long as pull back is contained above 155.79 support, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93 and is probably developing into triangle formation. having said that, break of mentioned 161.40 fibo projection will encourage stronger rise to retest resistance zone between 166.64 and 168.93 first. Though, upside should be limited there initially and bring another fall before completing the consolidation. On the downside, though, break of 152.11 will argue that fall from 167.72 is still underway to 149.72 low before completion.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.10; (P) 158.68; (R1) 159.65; More.EUR/JPY edges higher to 159.42 today. Even though upside momentum is unconvincing with 4 hours MACD still dating below signal line, intraday bias is still mildly on the upside as long as 157.68 minor support holds. Break of 159.46 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 152.11 is still in progress to 100% projection of 152.11 to 159.46 from 154.05 at 161.40. Meanwhile, on the downside, below 157.68 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 155.79 will argue that rise from 154.05 has completed and bring retest of 152.11 low.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93 and is probably developing into triangle formation. having said that, break of mentioned 161.40 fibo projection will encourage stronger rise to retest resistance zone between 166.64 and 168.93 first. Though, upside should be limited there initially and bring another fall before completing the consolidation. On the downside, though, break of 154.05 will argue that fall from 167.72 s still underway to 149.72 low before completion.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9351; (P) 1.9426; (R1) 1.9490; More Cable's strong rebound from 1.9360 and break of mentioned 1.9542 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.9737 to 1.9360 at 1.9549) suggested that fall from 1.9737 has completed. Focus is now on falling trend line resistance (now at 1.9646). Break will argue that whole decline from 1.9957 has completed with three waves down to 1.9360. Further break of 1.9737 resistance will confirm this case. In other words, the corrective nature of such fall suggests that consolidation from 1.9337 is still in progress and another rise should be seen to retest 1.9957 resistance before completion. On the downside, below 1.9482 is now needed to turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.9360 and then 1.9337.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, prior break of medium term rising channel and 2.0 psychological level at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161. With 55 weeks EMA taken out too, it's likely that the medium term up trend from 1.7047 has also completed. Deeper medium term decline is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.1161 at 1.8619. Such view will still hold as long as 2.0099 resistance holds.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.54; (P) 212.71; (R1) 213.51; MoreGBP/JPY's rise from 205.86 was limited at 213.85, slightly below inner falling channel resistance (now at 213.91). Subsequent retreat dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line, with GBP/JPY touched 211.88 support, indicating that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 209.28 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has completed and suggest that consolidation from 204.49 has finished too. In such case, deeper fall should be see to retest 204.49 low. Meanwhile, on the upside, above 213.85 will indicate that rise from 205.86 has resumed for 100% projection of 204.49 to 214.00 from 205.86 at 215.37.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 after completion of a medium term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), with the medium term trend line support taken out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. However, subsequent fall from there was contained at 204.49, after being supported by double channel support and formed a short term bottom. Nevertheless, as long as the current rebound is limited below 221.25 support turned resistance, the fall from 241.35 should still be in force and deeper decline is expected to psychological support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50% retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 high) at 199.64.
However, sustained break of the mentioned inner channel resistance (now at 214.91) and 100% projection level at 215.37 will firstly indicate that fall from 241.35 has completed. Secondly, it will alert that whole decline from 251.09 has possibly completed with three waves down to 204.49 too. Further break of 221.25 support turned resistance will have medium term outlook will turn neutral first in such case and focus will be back on outer channel resistance (now at 231.47).
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.34; (P) 157.91; (R1) 158.49; More.
EUR/JPY remains firm today and edges further higher to 158.72 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 157.32 minor support holds. As discussed before, whole rebound from 152.11 could still be in progress. Break of 159.46 will confirm this case and bring further rise to 100% projection of 152.11 to 159.46 from 154.05 at 161.40. Below 175.32 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But break of 155.79 is needed to indicate rise from 154.05 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93. It's still early to conclude whether such consolidation has completed. On the one hand, sustained break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm that the medium term up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another fall could still be seen before completing the consolidation. On the other hand, below 152.11 will suggest that fall from 167.72 is still in progress to retest 149.27 low before completion.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4567; (P) 1.4700; (R1) 1.4780;
MoreEUR/USD's fall from 1.4951 continues today and extends further to as low as 1.4660 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.4659 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, sustained break of mentioned 1.4659 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4365 to 1.4951 at 1.4658) confirms that rise from 1.4365 has completed. Further decline is now expected to be seen to short term rising trend line (now at 1.4399). Above 1.4659 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal after failing 1.4966 record high suggest that EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway consolidation that started at 1.4966, probably developing into triangle formation. Having said that, downside of the current fall from 1.4951 should be contained above 1.4365 low and bring another rise to retest the 1.4966 record high and 1.5 psychological resistance, which overlaps 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004. Though, firm break there is needed to confirm medium term up trend has resumed to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048.
However, break of 1.4365 support will open up some bearish scenarios. Fall from 1.4951 could indeed be the third leg of a the consolidation that started at 1.4966 (1.4966 to 1.4309, 1.4309 to 1.4951). Or this could indeed be a triple top formation, with tops at 1.4966, 1.4921 and 1.4951. In either case, deeper decline could then be seen to next medium term support at 1.4014.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9580; (P) 1.9670; (R1) 1.9737; MoreCable's fall from 1.9957 extends further to as low as 1.9570 today. Sustained break of mentioned 1.9645 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9337 to 1.9957 at 1.9647) confirms that rebound from 1.9337 has already completed at 1.9957. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.9655 resitance holds. Further decline is expected to be seen to retest 1.9337 low. Break will confirm that the whole down trend from 2.1161 has resumed for next medium term support at 1.9183 first. On the upside, above 1.9665 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, prior break of medium term rising channel and 2.0 psychological level at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161. With 55 weeks EMA taken out too, it's likely that the medium term up trend from 1.7047 has also completed. Deeper medium term decline is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.1161 at 1.8619. On the upside,break of 1.9957 is needed to indicate that rebound from 1.9337 is still underway for 2.0099 resistance. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish even in case of interim recovery.
Very Simple Very Good ;-)
Forex is all about making pips and converting them into Dollars ;-) isent it? yeah it is ... well the more you know the more you get confused... isent it? I DISAGREE :-) Know more but implement only Few .... so when you use simple strategies you wont get confused atleast you wont be thinking about to trust your Moving averages or to trust your MACD or RSI ... apart from all of this ... I designed and implemented very simple strategy and to expose it to all you people mostly my Marketiva Friends and Students !!!
Why you trade 10 or 20 trades a day? to risk more? A survey reports said that " Out of 10 people only 2 people are successful in trading" why dont you be the one in those 2 TRADERS?
So if you want to be in those 2 Traders "TRADE LESS" and enter only when trend is set.... your 2 or maximum of 3 trades can make you earn a SINGLE position but your 10 trades can make you pay 8 trades in losses according to that Survey :-)
Best Regards,
Pip-Machine.
Pivot Points Table:
Elliot Wave Theory::
Elliot Wave Theory::
Back in the old school days during the 1920-30s, there was this mad genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott. Elliott discovered that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, actually, did not.
They traded in repetitive cycles, which he pointed out were the emotions of investors and traders caused by outside influences (ahem, CNBC) or the predominant psychology of the masses at the time.
Elliott explained that the upward and downward swings of the mass psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns, which were then divided into patterns he called "waves". He needed to claim this observation and so he came up with a super original name: The Elliott Wave Theory.
The 5 – 3 Wave Patterns
Mr. Elliott showed that a trending market moves in what he calls a 5-3 wave pattern. The first 5-wave pattern is called impulse waves and the last 3-wave pattern is called corrective waves.
Let’s first take a look at the 5-wave impulse pattern. It’s easier if you see it as a picture:
Yes! Thats more like it, Colors always sounds good to eyes instead of black and white Images.
Here is a short description of what happens during each wave. I am going to use stocks for my example since stocks is what Mr. Elliott used but it really doesn’t matter what it is. It can easily be currencies, bonds, gold, oil, or Tickle Me Elmo dolls. The important thing is the Elliott Wave Theory can also be applied to the foreign exchange market.
Wave 1 The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.
Wave 2 At this point enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.
Wave 3 This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 People take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips”.
Wave 5 This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. People start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.
The ABC Correction
The 5-wave trends are then corrected and reversed by 3-wave countertrends. Letters are used instead of numbers to track the correction. Check out this example of smokin’ hot 3-wave corrective wave pattern!
Just because I’ve been using a bull market as my primary example doesn’t mean the Elliott Wave theory doesn’t work on bear markets. The same 5 – 3 wave pattern can look like this:
Waves within a Wave
The other important thing you have to know about the Elliot Wave Theory is that a wave is made of sub-waves? Huh? Let me show you another picture. Pictures are great aren't they? Yee-haw!
Do you see how Wave 1 is made up of a smaller 5-wave impulse pattern and Wave 2 is made up of smaller 3-wave corrective pattern? Each wave is always comprised of smaller wave patterns.
As you can see, waves aren’t shaped perfectly in real life. You’ll also learn its sometimes difficult to label waves. But the more you stare at charts the better you’ll get.
Okay, that’s all you need to know about the Elliott Wave Theory. Remember the market moves in waves. Now when you hear somebody say “Wave 2 is complete.” You’ll know what the heck he is talking about.
If you wish to become an Elliott Wave Theory guru, you can learn more about it at
www.elliottwave.com.
